Why bitcoin in its present form will be a big failure #BitcoinCrash #bitcoinprice
- Bitcoin doesn’t address the basic issue of a frictionless money movement, with all the transactions cost, and impossible to reverse a fraudulent transaction.
- Bitcoin doesn’t address the basic concept of modern financial capital markets, of allowing a meaningful leverage and fractional reserve concept of modern fiat currencies. No concept of interest rate, only implied price appreciation.
- It’s biggest properties are its biggest flaws, immutable transaction(makes it difficult to reverse a transaction, thus make it useless as a payment network). Bearer asset, makes it useless for providing or acting as a base currency for a fractional reserve system.
- And a limited supply (artificial scarcity) makes it useless to determine the interest rate based on true demand/supply. (Early adopters and novice proponents propose it as a replacement as this is in there best interest, replace one flawed system with another one).
- Bitcoin another unique property or strength as claimed by its proponents is privacy or wallets can hide the identity, this is the biggest weakness also, as it make it difficult to build any true financial product based on bitcoin
- Bitcoin is against Anglo-Saxon doctrines and current construct of capital markets, where concept of leverage/risk transfer/interest rate/credit risk and transparent price and risk discovery are basic tenants #BitcoinvsFiat
- proponents claims that $BTC is answer to global fiat currency printing by central banks, without answering the question, why there can’t be another blockchain like $BTC? Or even a better one than as technology advances?#dogecoin can be better alternative compared to when it comes to peer-to-peer global payment network for micro transactions $Doge #Dogcoin #dogeusdt
- $BTC testing below $3k would be a good stress test for this crypto cycle, as that will force the much needed technology change to keep crypto relevant.
- Gini coefficient The Gini coefficient is a single number that demonstrates a degree of inequality in a distribution of income/wealth, it’s too high for $Bitcoin blockchain, concentrating wealth in too few wallets #Ponzi
- Most of the crypto outperformance is in low interest rate environment. triple whammy for #bitcoinmining 1) end product $BTC is low 2) Mining cost is high 3) Initial network effect is gone 4) All fiat currencies are not in QE mode. #BitcoinCrash #crypto
- electricity prices have soared – by up to 70% in parts of the world, leading some industry experts to calculate that mining a single bitcoin can now cost up to $25,000. So the industry finds itself squeezed at both ends, low bitcoin price and high cost
- Most of the bitcoin rally of past decade is based on few conditions 1) Global QE/Fiat debasement 2) Low base price and adoption 3) Low or negative interest rates 4) Bitcoin mining still profitable based on price of $BTC and mining. All these are no more there
- All the above conditions are not Reversing 1) central banks want to tighten to save credibility 2) most of the early adoption for bitcoin is done and cost base is much higher 3) No real use case for $BTC till now 4) A severe price correction will take out speculators
- JUST IN: 50% of supply is in loss. If the price of the bitcoin stays below $20k which for few years, it will make it very difficult for new buyers and for #Hodlers to be bullish and buy more $BTC
Hopefully by next halving cycle will be decentralized enough and enough real used cases emerge and a history of survived enough market corrections, to be a real viable environment.