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Seasonality in markets and Bubbles??

We have updated this post with more seasonality trends.

Seasonality in Financial Markets

Seasonality refers to particular time frames when stocks/sectors/indices are subjected to and influenced by recurring tendencies that produce patterns that are apparent in the investment valuation.

  • More strong in commodities
  • Broad market indicies
  • Not that strong in common stocks

Tendencies can range from weather events (temperature in winter vs. summer, probability of inclement conditions, etc.) to calendar events (quarterly reporting expectations, announcements, etc.).   The key is that the tendency is recurring and provides a sustainable probability of performing in a manner consistent to previous results.

Seasonality in few charts

  • Overall summer months, generally positive for commodity(precious metals and agricultural commodities) space, and sideways moves for equity markets after April??
  • Positive for Commodity currencies?

Seasonality in Market in years 2002/2208/2022

Given the Current Market Action, it might be Worth looking at past market correction and seasonality.

Tech heavy NASDAQ and SPY

QQQ in 2001/2002/2008

 

SPY in 2022/2008

Silver(SLV)

Based on the past 10 years of data, silver has a positive return for the month of July, most of the time.

 

SPY/Broader market Index

  • For SP500 Index/SPY ETF, June on an average negative month.

 

QQQ

  • For NASDAQ Index/QQQ ETF, June on an average negative month.

 

Corn

  • Agricultural commodities like CORN, which are driven by seasonal harvest, usually end up performing negatively in the post-harvest season.

Australian Dollar

Fixed Income Markets

  • TLT, which is long term US treasury notes ETF, has a positive return for most of the summer months.

Small-Cap is in Sideway pattern Since early march

Are there signs of Bubbles

We curated some of the popular Memes/twits, just for pure fun, capturing the current sentiment on Twitter, just for pure fun.

1) All the Broader market index rally, is just keeping up with the balance sheet expansion of central banks? That’s good news assuming this continues forever??

2) This popular meme below captures the current mindset of youth?

 

3) Dr. Partikpatecfa is recommending a portfolio with Doge/Bitcoin and meme stocks

4) Most of the central bankers and planners are in a tough spot?

 

Kramer

5) Big tech name is consistently trying to reinvent and stay relevant, Microsoft is a good example of this.

 

Disclaimer: All material presented in this newsletter is not to be regarded as investment advice, but for general informational purposes only. Day trading does involve risk, so caution must always be utilized. We cannot guarantee profits or freedom from loss. You assume the entire cost and risk of any trading you choose to undertake. You are solely responsible for making your own investment decisions. Owners of this newsletter, its representatives, its principals, its moderators, and its members, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers or investment advisors either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or with any securities regulatory authority. We recommend consulting with a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, and/or financial advisor. If you choose to invest with or without seeking advice from such an advisor or entity, then any consequences resulting from your investments are your sole responsibility. Reading and using this newsletter or using our content on the web/server, you are indicating your consent and agreement to our disclaimer.

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